Industry Story: The Floor and Ceiling of Vanilla Pricing

Vanillabeansistock

The global vanilla industry continues to be impacted by changes to Madagascar’s export policies and the dominance of synthetic alternatives; however, there remains an ongoing demand for premium Pacific pods.

Vanilla has been grown in the Blue Pacific region since 1948, with Papua New Guinea (PNG), Tonga, French Polynesia, Cook Islands, Fiji, Vanuatu and Niue being significant producers of the popular spice. Today, shifts in local export policies and the growing prominence of synthetic alternatives, have intensified competition in the global market. 

 

Madagascar is the top global vanilla exporter by a substantial margin, supplying over 70% of the world’s vanilla. In 2021, Madagascar exported more than five times as much vanilla as the next largest exporter, France. Madagascar has long dominated and effectively controlled the international vanilla market. 

 

For several years, the Malagasy Government had a minimum export price of US$250 per kilogram on natural vanilla, setting international standards and guaranteeing the value of one of its key national exports. In May 2023, this policy was reversed, liberalising vanilla export prices. This set off a deflationary trend that continues to define the global vanilla market in 2025. 

 

Bloomberg reported that due to price liberalisation, Madagascar’s revenue from vanilla exports slumped 64% in 2024. For the first three months of the year, revenue was reported as US$52.9 million, compared to US$144.9 million the year prior, despite shipments almost doubling across the same period. 

As global vanilla prices decreased with the removal of the Madagascan-led pricing floor, other vanilla-producing countries increased their market presence. Uganda emerged as a dynamic new player in the vanilla market, doubling its exports to 604 tonnes in 2024, generating US$16.6 million in revenue. Ugandan vanilla beans are known for their extremely bold and sweet flavours, differentiating them from their more subtle Madagascan counterparts. PNG also retained its significant market position, with an estimated 10% share of global supply. PNG’s production is concentrated in the Sepik provinces, where the beans are harvested by hand and known for their peppery undertones.  

Along with changes to the minimum price, natural vanilla prices are also constrained by a market-driven ceiling, with synthetic alternatives providing a cheaper substitute. When natural vanilla prices rise beyond a certain point, buyers and distributors often switch to alternatives to control rising costs. 

Synthetic vanilla flavouring, also known as vanillin, is a compound designed to mimic the flavour of natural vanilla and is made from chemically processed materials such as petrochemicals, wood pulp, or coal tar. In the US, it is estimated that 90% of the vanilla flavouring consumed is made from vanillin. 

Despite the volatility and ongoing challenges facing the vanilla industry in 2025 – such as price fluctuations and competition from substitutes – there remains a resilient niche market for high-grade natural vanilla. This demand is driven by global shifts in sustainability, organic lifestyles, and natural vanilla’s nuanced flavour profile, which cannot be replicated by synthetic vanillin. French Polynesia exemplifies this enduring niche, commanding some of the highest prices per kilogram of vanilla in the world. In 2021, French Polynesia was the 14th largest exporter by value, but the 28th by volume. 

Other Pacific countries, such as Niue, are focusing on quality of product and carving out corners of the international market. Vanilla was first grown commercially in Niue in 2021. Since then, it has become a reliable source of income for the country and its people, and supplementing the tourism industry. Learn more about Niue Vanilla’s recent trade here. 

For more information about exporting Pacific vanilla, reach out to the team here.