Global cocoa markets have moved through one of their most volatile periods in recent history, and after reaching record highs in 2024, driven largely by severe supply disruptions in West Africa, international prices have since corrected as global production stabilises. While the market is recalibrating, price levels remain elevated relative to long-term historical averages, and buyers continue to reassess sourcing strategies in response to these recent shocks.
From price spike to price normalisation
Cocoa’s sharp price escalation in 2024 delivered record returns for many cocoa-producing countries. In parts of the Blue Pacific region, particularly Samoa, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Vanuatu, strong cash crop prices contributed to rural household income growth and supported broader economic recovery following the pandemic period.
Forecasts now point to a material softening in prices as global supply improves. This moderation is expected to reduce income flows in cocoa-growing provinces, particularly where smallholder production underpins household consumption. While the commodity cycle is turning, the reset in buyer behaviour remains.
Unlike the supply of many other agricultural commodities, the supply of cocoa adjusts to change more slowly. Trees take years to mature, and large-scale production expansion is constrained by climate, disease pressure and land availability. The recent period of volatility has reinforced for manufacturers the risks associated with relying on concentrated sourcing models. As a result, procurement decisions are increasingly influenced not only by price, but by reliability, quality consistency and traceability.
The Pacific’s role in the Australian market
Within this environment, Pacific cocoa continues to hold a meaningful position in Australia.
According to PTI Australia import data, in 2024, cocoa beans sourced from Pacific Island countries accounted for 14.2% of Australia’s total cocoa bean import value and 19.8% of its total import volume. While the Pacific region represents a modest share of global production, these figures demonstrate its continued commercial relevance to the Australian market.
Australia’s chocolate and confectionery sector, and its increasing growth in premium and craft segments, is characterised by strong demand for traceable, ethically sourced ingredients. This aligns closely with the Pacific’s production profile: smallholder-based, origin-distinct and well suited to value-driven positioning rather than bulk commodity competition.
A small share globally – a strategic position regionally
Pacific cocoa accounts for less than 2% of global output. Rather than constraining opportunity, this positions the region within a differentiated segment of the market.
Cocoa production remains embedded in rural economies across PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa. In Solomon Islands, cocoa is among the country’s leading agricultural exports. In Vanuatu and PNG, cocoa supports large numbers of smallholder households across coastal and island communities — with Bougainville widely recognised as PNG’s cocoa powerhouse. The crop’s role extends beyond export earnings: it underpins livelihoods, supports local aggregation networks and sustains participation in formal export markets.
As global supply conditions normalise and prices retreat from historic highs, value per tonne becomes increasingly important. Improvements in fermentation practices, drying infrastructure, quality control and aggregation systems remain central to capturing premiums in specialty and boutique segments. These fundamentals — rather than short-term price cycles — determine sustained competitiveness.
Positioning beyond the commodity cycle
The global chocolate industry is also evolving. Consumer demand is shifting towards transparency, origin differentiation and ethical sourcing. Buyers are more attentive to provenance, climate resilience and supply chain integrity. This creates space for Pacific exporters to strengthen commercial relationships built on trust and consistency.
Price volatility has reinforced a key lesson for international buyers: the need for resilience in sourcing models. Diversified supply chains, strong origin relationships and reliable partners are increasingly viewed as risk mitigation strategies. In this context, Pacific cocoa holds strategic value that extends beyond volume.
Outlook
Cocoa prices are expected to ease further through 2026, as global production improves. For Pacific producers, this will require an adjustment after a period of unusually strong returns, however, the broader opportunity remains intact.
The pathway forward lies in reinforcing quality, strengthening export readiness, and positioning Pacific cocoa as a differentiated origin within Australia and other premium markets. As buyers recalibrate following recent volatility, the Pacific’s role is likely to be defined by consistency, provenance and long-term partnership rather than by scale.
Pacific Trade Invest works with exporters across our region to strengthen market access, build export capability and connect Pacific producers with commercial partners in Australia and beyond. For more information on Pacific cocoa supply, buyer introductions or export readiness support, contact the PTI team here.
